Primaries are concluding on Tuesday in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming for congressional and state offices, and below you’ll find our guide to the most important races in each state. When it”;s available, we’ll tell you about any polling that exists for each race, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
As we always caution, we may not know all the winners on election night. With the coronavirus pandemic fueling a surge in mail voting, election watchers everywhere should expect that we might not learn the results in every race for some time–;perhaps days or even weeks.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close in most of Florida. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you”;ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the cycle”;s remaining down-ballot primaries, as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
; AK State House: A cross-partisan coalition led by Democrats currently runs Alaska’s state House even though Republicans nominally hold a majority of seats in the 40-member chamber, which is why some major national GOP organizations are spending heavily to defeat their party’s wayward incumbents. Labor groups, meanwhile, are working hard to renominate these Republicans.
The House Majority Caucus, as it’s known, includes 15 Democrats, two independents (the speaker is one of them), and five Republicans, though that number has shrunk from its original eight.
Polls close at 7 PM ET in the portion of the state located in the Eastern Time Zone, where about 95% of Floridians reside, and an hour later in the rest of the state, which takes in the western panhandle.
; FL-03 (R) (56-40 Trump, 57-42 Trump): Far-right Rep. Ted Yoho is retiring, and 10 fellow Republicans are running to succeed him in this safely red seat in north-central Florida.
The top spender from July 1 to July 29 (the time the FEC defines as the preprimary period) was self-funding physician James St. George, who deployed $370,000. Just behind with $315,000 was Judson Sapp, who lost to Yoho 76-24 last cycle in a campaign that attracted very little attention.
Kat Cammack, who served as Yoho”;s campaign manager during his upset 2012 win and later worked in his congressional office, spent a smaller $260,000, but she”;s received $330,000 in support from Protect Freedom PAC, a group run by allies of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. (In a weird twist, Yoho, who has not endorsed anyone, confirmed in June that he”;d “;demoted”; Cammack seven years ago.) The field also includes former Gainesville City Commissioner Todd Chase, Clay County Commissioner Gavin Rollins, businessman Ryan Chamberlin, and businesswoman Amy Pope Wells.
The only poll we”;ve seen in the last month was an independent survey from the local firm Meer Research in early August, which showed Cammack beating Sapp 25-15 as St. George and Rollins took 13% and 11%, respectively.
; FL-13 (R) (50-46 Clinton, 55-44 Obama): Three notable Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, a former Republican who served as governor from 2007 to 2011, in this potentially competitive St. Petersburg seat.
Attorney and former congressional staffer Amanda Makki has the support of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, while Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna is pitching herself as a pro-Trump outsider. 2018 nominee George Buck, who lost to Crist 58-42 last time, is also in, but national Republicans don”;t want him anywhere close to the nomination: The National Republican Congressional Committee cut ties with Buck last year after he sent out a fundraising email calling for Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to be executed for “treason.” Makki outspent Luna $445,000 to $225,000 during the preprimary period, while Buck used $130,000.
; FL-15 (R & D) (53-43 Trump, 52-47 Romney): Freshman Republican Rep. Ross Spano is under federal investigation for allegedly violating campaign finance laws during his successful 2018 bid, which prompted a serious primary challenge from Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin.
Most of the GOP establishment, including Sen. Marco Rubio and the neighboring Republican congressmen, is still sticking with Spano despite his legal woes. Franklin, meanwhile, has the backing of 1st District Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is famous as Trump’s most rabid superfan but represents a district that’s more than 300 miles away.
Franklin, who has mostly been self-funding his bid, outspent Spano $355,000 to $160,000 during the preprimary period, and according to the GOP firm Medium Buying, the difference is even starker when looking at TV and radio spending. Spano”;s allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth, though, have deployed $270,000 to prop him up, while a group called Wingman PAC has spent $170,000 to aid Franklin. The only poll we”;ve seen was a St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics a week before the primary that found Spano up just 42-41.
Two notable Democrats are also running here. Former local TV news anchor Alan Cohn, who lost a primary for a previous version of this seat in 2014, outspent state Rep. Adam Hattersley $150,000 to $100,000 during the preprimary period. Hattersley is arguing that he”;s the more electable candidate, while Cohn is portraying his opponent as too conservative.
; FL-19 (R) (60-38 Trump, 61-39 Romney): GOP Rep. Francis Rooney is retiring from this safely red district in the Cape Coral and Fort Myers area after only two terms, and we have a very crowded and extremely expensive primary to succeed him.
A big reason is because two wealthy candidates have both poured tons of their own cash into the race. Urologist William Figlesthaler outspent businessman (and fellow self-funder) Casey Askar $1 million to $880,000 during the preprimary period. State Rep. Byron Donalds, who would be the second Black Republican to represent Florida in Congress since Reconstruction (and isn’t self-funding), deployed a smaller $425,000 during this time. However, Donalds”; supporters at the Club for Growth and allied Conservative Outsider PAC have been spending millions on ads over the last several months promoting him and attacking his opponents.
State House Majority Leader Dane Eagle, who has Sen. Marco Rubio”;s endorsement, spent only $170,000, but a group called Concerned Conservatives has also been helping him. A few other candidates are also in the mix, including Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson and former Minnesota state House Minority Whip Dan Severson, but they don”;t have much money or serious outside support.
An early August St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics showed Donalds narrowly edging out Figlesthaler 22-21, while Eagle was just behind with 20%. Askar was in fourth with 16%, while Henderson was further behind with only 8%.
Other Florida Races to Watch:
Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you”;ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!
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